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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
26.1%
MIA
73.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Tyler Shough (NO): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than NO
  • MIA defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 18
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Chris Olave WR Questionable Back

MIA

Darren Waller TE Questionable Pectoral
Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Foot
Benito Jones DT Questionable Ankle
Austin Jackson T Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 TD MIA (11:27) 28-D.Achane right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:13 FG MIA (14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 10
  • Q2 06:10 FG MIA (6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIA (:02) 47-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 16
  • Q3 10:45 TD NO (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – MIA 16
  • Q4 09:42 FG MIA (9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 8 – MIA 19
  • Q4 06:13 FG NO (6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 11 – MIA 19
  • Q4 01:23 TD NO (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – MIA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis to NO 34 for 7 yards (51-C.Johnson).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 44 for 5 yards (22-E.Campbell).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 31%

    (2:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:43) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis. PENALTY on NO-43-M.Davis, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 34.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-D.Stutsman.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:33) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 5 yards (27-I.Yiadom).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%

    (6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (3:05) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon left guard to NO 44 for -1 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%

    (:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).