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New Orleans Saints

2-10 HC Kellen Moore
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Miami Dolphins

5-7 HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
31.1%
MIA
68.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.005 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Tyler Shough (NO): -0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than NO
  • NO defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 18 11–25
–
MIA 25 18–32
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Chris Olave WR Questionable Back

MIA

Darren Waller TE Questionable Pectoral
Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Foot
Benito Jones DT Questionable Ankle
Austin Jackson T Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:27 TD MIA (11:27) 28-D.Achane right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:13 FG MIA (14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 10
  • Q2 06:10 FG MIA (6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIA (:02) 47-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 0 – MIA 16
  • Q3 10:45 TD NO (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – MIA 16
  • Q4 09:42 FG MIA (9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NO 8 – MIA 19
  • Q4 06:13 FG NO (6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 11 – MIA 19
  • Q4 01:23 TD NO (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – MIA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis to NO 34 for 7 yards (51-C.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:37) 32-K.Kroeger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 44 for 5 yards (22-E.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 31%

    (2:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:43) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis. PENALTY on NO-43-M.Davis, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-D.Stutsman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to NO 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:33) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 5 yards (27-I.Yiadom).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%

    (6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (3:05) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon left guard to NO 44 for -1 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%

    (:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).

    See the full breakdown →