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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 8 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-D.Stutsman.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model