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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 8 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 32-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 6-M.Washington to MIA 47 for 5 yards (27-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model