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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 16 – New Orleans Saints 8

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model