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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 8 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model