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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 17 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP