Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(8:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis to NO 34 for 7 yards (51-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.45 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model