Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(4:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 44 for 5 yards (22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model