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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to NYG 44, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP