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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Monday 2025-12-01 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🥶 Cold Spread 7.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NYG
29.3%
NE
70.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.266 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYG

Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Out Shoulder
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Neck
Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Knee
Swayze Bozeman LB Questionable Hip
Korie Black CB Questionable Biceps

NE

Brenden Schooler S Out Ankle
Jared Wilson G Out Ankle
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee
Garrett Bradbury C Questionable Illness
Khyiris Tonga DT Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 15
–
NE 33

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:17 FG NE (9:17) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYG 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:37 TD NE (5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – NE 9
  • Q1 01:04 TD NE (1:04) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 9-K.Boutte for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – NE 16
  • Q2 12:55 TD NYG (12:55) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 18-D.Slayton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NE 17
  • Q2 03:35 TD NE (3:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 18-K.Williams for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – NE 23
  • Q2 01:51 FG NE (1:51) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYG 7 – NE 27
  • Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 36-A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYG 7 – NE 30
  • Q4 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-D.Singletary. 26-D.Singletary right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – NE 30
  • Q4 02:17 FG NE (2:17) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NYG 15 – NE 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:17) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:49) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt; 46-Z.Barnes).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (10:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 22 yards to NYG 44, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 12-J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (98-J.Pharms).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (1:51) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NE 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

    (10:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (15-M.Mapu) [2-H.Landry].

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs to NYG 26 for 10 yards (21-P.Adebo).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (4:13) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%

    (10:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:52) 12-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 57-C.Golston).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (2:17) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 56%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (53-C.Elliss) [51-J.Gibbens].