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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 12-J.Gillan right end to NE 42 for -13 yards (98-J.Pharms).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP