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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 65

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NE 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model