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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 36

New England Patriots 30 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs to NYG 26 for 10 yards (21-P.Adebo).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model