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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 27

New England Patriots 30 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model