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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 46

New England Patriots 30 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model