Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 63 yards to GB 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 87-R.Doubs to GB 31 for 17 yards (44-N.Sewell). PENALTY on GB-16-B.Melton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model