Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Jordan Love (GB): +0.272 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- GB offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- GB defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
GB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:25 TD GB (9:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 6
- Q2 01:17 FG CHI (1:17) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – GB 7
- Q2 00:45 TD GB (:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – GB 13
- Q3 08:25 TD CHI (8:25) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [1-M.Parsons]. CHI 9 – GB 14
- Q3 06:17 TD GB (6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 11 – GB 20
- Q3 03:19 FG CHI (3:19) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 14 – GB 21
- Q4 08:05 TD CHI (8:05) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – GB 21
- Q4 03:37 TD GB (3:37) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – GB 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(13:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 63 yards to GB 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 87-R.Doubs to GB 31 for 17 yards (44-N.Sewell). PENALTY on GB-16-B.Melton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 21.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(5:31) 19-T.Taylor punts 30 yards to GB 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 GB 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to CHI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 6 yards (33-E.Williams; 59-T.Hopper).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 58%
(4:49) 18-C.Williams scrambles right end ran ob at GB 34 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%
(1:17) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to GB 7, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%
(3:19) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(1:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%
(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
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