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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 15

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model