4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 62

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:10) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to GB 7, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model