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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 23

Chicago Bears 11 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model