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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 19-T.Taylor punts 30 yards to GB 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model