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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to CHI 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 25 for 6 yards (33-E.Williams; 59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model