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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model