Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CIN on 3 more days rest than BUF
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.165 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.137 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
CIN
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:52 TD CIN (6:52) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BUF 0
- Q1 01:57 FG BUF (1:57) 15-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. CIN 7 – BUF 3
- Q2 13:39 TD CIN (13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BUF 3
- Q2 07:36 TD BUF (7:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. CIN 14 – BUF 9
- Q2 03:25 TD CIN (3:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at BUF 1 for 9 yards (45-S.Thompson). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – BUF 11
- Q3 09:23 TD BUF (9:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – BUF 17
- Q4 08:49 TD CIN (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-S.Thompson]. CIN 27 – BUF 18
- Q4 07:41 TD BUF (7:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – BUF 24
- Q4 05:35 TD BUF (5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – BUF 31
- Q4 03:09 TD BUF (3:09) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 85-J.Hawes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – BUF 38
- Q4 02:19 TD CIN (2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 34 – BUF 39
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(1:57) 15-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 39%
(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at CIN 28 for 17 yards (20-D.Turner).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%
(7:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 44%
(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir [52-C.Johnson].
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Q2 CIN 4th & 18 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%
(:23) 8-R.Rehkow punts 22 yards to BUF 26, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-42-O.Burks.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-W.Wagner. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 28 for 9 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(3:09) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 85-J.Hawes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.