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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 11 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir [52-C.Johnson].

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model