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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Buffalo Bills 11

What Actually Happened

(:23) 8-R.Rehkow punts 22 yards to BUF 26, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-42-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -1.43 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model