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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Buffalo Bills 18

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-W.Wagner. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 28 for 9 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model