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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 15-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP