4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model