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Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2025-12-04 · 20:15 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

DAL
50.1%
DET
49.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.166 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.193 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 27
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

Trevon Diggs CB Out Knee
Tyler Guyton T Out Ankle
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Hamstring
Malik Hooker S Questionable Back

DET

Kalif Raymond WR Out Ankle
Shane Zylstra TE Out Knee
Kayode Awosika G Out Foot
Brock Wright TE Out Neck
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Graham Glasgow C Questionable Knee
Penei Sewell T Questionable Shoulder
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Brian Branch S Questionable Toe
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 30
–
DET 44

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:50 FG DET (10:50) 39-J.Bates 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DAL 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 08:12 FG DAL (8:12) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – DET 3
  • Q1 02:18 TD DET (2:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 09:27 FG DAL (9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – DET 10
  • Q2 04:36 TD DET (4:36) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – DET 16
  • Q2 00:55 FG DAL (:55) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:04 FG DET (:04) 39-J.Bates 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DAL 9 – DET 20
  • Q3 14:18 TD DET (14:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – DET 26
  • Q3 10:43 TD DAL (10:43) 33-J.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – DET 27
  • Q3 02:54 FG DAL (2:54) 17-B.Aubrey 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 19 – DET 27
  • Q4 11:54 FG DET (11:54) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DAL 19 – DET 30
  • Q4 09:59 TD DAL (9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 25 – DET 30
  • Q4 07:22 TD DET (7:22) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – DET 36
  • Q4 03:45 FG DAL (3:45) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 30 – DET 37
  • Q4 02:25 TD DET (2:25) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 30 – DET 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (10:50) 39-J.Bates 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 64%

    (8:12) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (7:19) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-H.Hatten. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 9 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-25-T.Bridges, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DAL 9. Penalty on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, declined.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:36) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to DET 37, Center-44-T.Sieg. 85-T.Kennedy to DAL 42 for 21 yards (43-M.Davis; 35-M.Liufau).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 19 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%

    (9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:28) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 69%

    (:55) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to DET 2 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox; 23-R.Ya-Sin). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), recovered by DAL-73-T.Smith at DET 2.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (5:52) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-S.Williams), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 19 at the 45
    Chose KICK Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%

    (2:54) 17-B.Aubrey 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (11:54) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (3:45) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 40 for 9 yards (2-D.Thomas). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-R.Flournoy to DAL 41 for 10 yards (2-D.Thomas).