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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 37

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:55) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP