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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 20

Detroit Lions 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 39-J.Bates 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model