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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 34

Detroit Lions 27 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-S.Williams), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model