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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Detroit Lions 37

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.18 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP