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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model