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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 51

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-H.Hatten. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 9 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-25-T.Bridges, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DAL 9. Penalty on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model