Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 94

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.02 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 94, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model