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Denver Broncos

11-2 HC Sean Payton
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

2-11 HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 16:05 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -8.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN
68.4%
LV
31.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Geno Smith (LV): -0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 26 19–33
–
LV 20 13–27
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

DEN

D.J. Jones DT Out Ankle
Nate Adkins TE Out Knee

LV

Alex Bachman WR Out Thumb
Michael Mayer TE Out Ankle
Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR Out Concussion
Jamal Adams LB Questionable Knee
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Knee
Jeremy Chinn S Questionable Back
Jordan Meredith C Questionable Ankle
Dylan Parham G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
LV 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:10 TD DEN (6:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LV 0
  • Q1 00:05 TD LV (:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LV 6
  • Q2 06:44 TD DEN (6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LV 7
  • Q3 04:10 TD DEN (4:10) 12-R.Harvey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – LV 7
  • Q4 03:59 FG DEN (3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 24 – LV 7
  • Q4 02:22 TD LV (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 4-S.Jackson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – LV 13
  • Q4 00:05 FG LV (:05) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 24 – LV 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (10:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 35 yards to LV 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:50) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 55%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 39 for 4 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 41 for 2 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 32%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 44 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:31) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-59-J.Rhattigan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 64%

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 18-J.Bech to DEN 22 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (5:30) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey up the middle to LV 12 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 92-J.Pegues).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 85%

    (1:04) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey left guard to LV 28 for no gain (99-T.Booker).

    See the full breakdown →