Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Geno Smith (LV): -0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DEN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- LV defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
DEN
LV
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:10 TD DEN (6:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LV 0
- Q1 00:05 TD LV (:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – LV 6
- Q2 06:44 TD DEN (6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LV 7
- Q3 04:10 TD DEN (4:10) 12-R.Harvey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – LV 7
- Q4 03:59 FG DEN (3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 24 – LV 7
- Q4 02:22 TD LV (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 4-S.Jackson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 24 – LV 13
- Q4 00:05 FG LV (:05) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 24 – LV 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%
(10:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 35 yards to LV 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.
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Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:50) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 55%
(:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 39 for 4 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin to LV 41 for 2 yards (45-D.White) [51-M.Koonce].
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Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 52Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 32%
(:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 44 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
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Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:31) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-59-J.Rhattigan.
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Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 64%
(2:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 18-J.Bech to DEN 22 for 17 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
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Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(14:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%
(5:30) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey up the middle to LV 12 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 92-J.Pegues).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 5 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 28 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 85%
(1:04) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey left guard to LV 28 for no gain (99-T.Booker).