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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 44 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP