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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model