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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 13

Denver Broncos 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey up the middle to LV 12 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 92-J.Pegues).

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.72 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model