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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 28

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey left guard to LV 28 for no gain (99-T.Booker).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP