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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. Penalty on HOU-92-D.Horton, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model