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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 4.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
29.2%
KC
70.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than HOU

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

HOU

Jamal Hill LB Out Hamstring
Jaylen Reed S Out Forearm
Kamari Lassiter CB Questionable Foot

KC

Nikko Remigio WR Out Shoulder
Christian Roland-Wallace CB Out Back
Jawaan Taylor T Doubtful Triceps
Trey Smith G Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
KC 10

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:22 FG HOU (4:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 09:29 TD HOU (9:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 27-W.Marks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [32-N.Bolton]. HOU 9 – KC 0
  • Q3 09:59 TD KC (9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – KC 6
  • Q3 01:54 FG KC (1:54) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 10 – KC 10
  • Q4 07:00 TD HOU (7:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – KC 10
  • Q4 00:33 FG HOU (:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 20 – KC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:51) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to HOU 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to KC 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:57) 14-M.Araiza punts 57 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 33 for 21 yards (59-C.McDonald).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (4:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 39 yards to HOU 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. Penalty on HOU-92-D.Horton, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%

    (5:39) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 3, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (1:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:08) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to KC 44, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:20) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to KC 7, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 1-X.Worthy to KC 13 for 6 yards (31-D.Clark; 33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 7.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:43) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to HOU 48, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 93%

    (1:54) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 38, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:32) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to KC 22, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice [96-D.Autry].

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (3:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to KC 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-19-X.Hutchinson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.