Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 63

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to KC 7, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 1-X.Worthy to KC 13 for 6 yards (31-D.Clark; 33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.22 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model