4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to HOU 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.72 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP