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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 77

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 38, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model