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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model