Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 63

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(9:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to KC 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 1-X.Worthy.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model