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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice [96-D.Autry].

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.92 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model